Scenarios: 2010-2040. Part III: Climate Shifts
by Judith Curry Interpretation of statistical or dynamical predictions of future climate change needs to appropriately interpret the modes of natural internal climate variability, such as the Atlantic...
View ArticleWinter Weather
by Judith Curry In Atlanta right now, we have about 2″ of snow, overlain by freezing rain, a classical “winter mix.” The whole city is pretty much closed down (including Georgia Tech). This is a...
View ArticleChaos, ergodicity, and attractors
by Tomas Milanovic This post has been triggered by the following comment from Eli Rabbett in the spatio-temporal chaos thread : “Point being that it is possible to handle even classically chaotic...
View ArticleFoxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction
by Judith Curry Robert Ellison sent me a link to a review of a book entitled “Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them“, by Dan Gardner, which describes the research of UC...
View ArticleDempster on climate prediction
by Judith Curry I spotted this presentation by Arthur Dempster, Harvard statistician, in the Series on Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Modeling hosted by the Isaac Newton Institute...
View ArticleA prediction market for climate outcomes
by Judith Curry I am a strong believer that academic freedom is essential for scientific progress, and such freedom includes the right to be “wrong.” In fact, scientists can often learn much from...
View ArticleAnticipating the Climate Black Swan
by Judith Curry I just received the reviews on the manuscript I submitted to special issue of the journal Climatic Change, entitled “Reasoning About Climate Uncertainty.” Overall, the review was...
View ArticleClimate models as ink blots
by Judith Curry From Roger Pielke Jr.: A fundamental problem with climate science in the public realm, as conventionally practiced by the IPCC, is the essential ink blot nature of its presentation. By...
View ArticleClimate scenarios: 2015-2050
by Judith Curry ‘Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment’ The quote is from the Daily Mail article ‘Forget global warming: its Cycle 25 we need to worry about.’ On the Week in...
View ArticleTrends, change points & hypotheses
by Judith Curry Jonathan Leake asks in the Sunday Times: “Why has it warmed so much less than the IPCC predicted?” The article provides a good overview on the debate. Some summary excerpts: Is it...
View ArticleThe weatherman is not a moron
by Judith Curry Why are weather forecasters succeeding when other predictors fail? It’s because long ago they came to accept the imperfections in their knowledge. – Nate Silver Nate Silver has a...
View ArticleCool first, warm later
by Judith Curry From an article in the New Scientist by Fred Pearce, written in Sept 2009: One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades...
View ArticleRS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I
by Judith Curry Later this week, the Royal Society is hosting a Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction, With Application to Health, Agronomy, Hydrology, Energy and...
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ENSO forecast for 2018
by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime ‘predictability barrier.’ The springtime predictability barrier in ENSO predictions (Webster and Yang 1992) arises from...
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Beyond ENSO: new signals of seasonal to interannual predictability
by Judith Curry My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions. This week, I am attending the Weather Risk Management Conference (WRMA) in Miami. Utility of climate forecasts...
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Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change
by Javier A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change Summary: For the past decade anthropogenic emissions have slowed down, and continuation of current trends suggests a peak in emissions by...
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The Hansen forecasts 30 years later
by Ross McKitrick and John Christy Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B. How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR...
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Nature Unbound X – The next glaciation
by Javier Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of...
View ArticleWhat’s the worst case? Emissions/concentration scenarios
by Judith Curry Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible? This post is Part II in the possibility series (for an explanation of the possibilistic approach, see previous post link). This paper also follows up...
View ArticleWhy climate predictions are so difficult
by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens. Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101. March 22, 2019...
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2019 ENSO forecast
by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of...
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